Publications

Peer-reviewed

(Google Scholar profile,  gender stats of publications)
Underlined are PI-advised students and postdocs

Submitted

Dixit, A., S. Sahany, F. Lehner, S. K. Mishra (submitted):
Investigating parameter sensitivity in WRF-Hydro for streamflow modeling over a North-Western Himalayan basin

Tye, M. R., M. Ge, J. H. Richter, E. D. Gutmann, A. Rugg, C. L. Bruyère, S. Ellen Haupt, F. Lehner, R. McCrary, A. J. Newman, A. Wood (submitted):
Evaluating an Earth system model from a water user perspective

Byrne, M. P., G. Hegerl, J. Scheff, O. Adam, A. Berg, M. Biasutti, S. Bordoni, A. Dai, R. Geen, M. Henry, S. A. Hill, C. Hohenegger, V. Humphrey, M. Joshi, A. G. Konings, M. M. Lague, F. H. Lambert, F. Lehner, J. S. Mankin, K. A. McColl, K. A. McKinnon, A. G. Pendergrass, M. Pietschnig, A. Schurer, E. M. Scott, D. Sexton, S. C. Sherwood, L. Vargas Zeppetello, Y. Zhang (submitted):
Theory and the future of land-climate science

Gallant, A., S. Power, B. J. Henley, D. C. Verdon-Kidd, A. Pitman, D. G. C. Kirono, M. Adamu, C. Holgate, L. Ashcroft, K. Allen, P. Hope, A. S. Kiem, A. King, F. Lehner, A. G. Pendergrass, A. S. Taschetto, A. M. Ukkola, T. R. Vance, N. Wright (submitted):
Multi-year droughts through an Australian lens

2024

[86] Fasullo, J. T., J. M. Caron, A. Phillips, H. Li, J. H. Richter, R. B. Neale, N. Rosenbloom, G. Strand, S. Glanville, Y. Li, F. Lehner, G. Meehl, J.-C. Golaz, P. Ullrich, J. Lee, J. Arblaster (in press):
Modes of Variability in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles
Journal of Climate, DOI: XXX

[85] Zhuang, H., F. Lehner, A. DeGaetano (in press):
Improved diagnosis of precipitation type with LightGBM machine learning
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, DOI: XXX

[84] Schumacher, D. L., M. Zachariah, F. Otto, C. Barnes, S. Philip, S. Kew, M. Vahlberg, R. Singh, D. Heinrich, J. Arrighi, M. van Aalst, M. Hauser, M. Hirschi, V. Bessenbacher, L. Gudmundsson, H. K. Beaudoing, M. Rodell, S. Li, W. Yang, G. A. Vecchi, L. J. Harrington, F. Lehner, G. Balsamo, S. I. Seneviratne (2024):
Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 West-Central European soil drought
Earth System Dynamics, DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-717 | Supplementary Information

2023

[83] Simpson, I. R., K. A. McKinnon, D. Kennedy, D. M. Lawrence, F. Lehner, R. Seager (2023):
Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2302480120 | Supplementary Information

[82] Kuo, Y.-N., H. Kim, F. Lehner (2023):
Anthropogenic aerosols contribute to the recent decline in precipitation over the US Southwest
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2023GL105389 | Supplementary Information

[81] Rugg, A., E. D. Gutmann, R. R. McCrary, F. Lehner, A. J. Newman, J. H. Richter, M. R. Tye, A. W. Wood (2023):
Mass-conserving and cost-effective downscaling of climate model precipitation over mountainous terrain for water resource projections
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2023GL105326 | Supplementary Information

[80] Sundar, S., M. T. Craig, A. Payne, D. Brayshaw, F. Lehner (2023):
Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems
Nature Communications, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41875-6 | Supplementary Information

[79] Fischer, E. M., U. Beyerle, L. Bloin-Wibe, C. Gessner, V. Humphrey, F. Lehner, A. G. Pendergrass, S. Sippel, J. Zeder, and R. Knutti (2023):
Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting
Nature Communications, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40112-4 | Supplementary Information

[78] Lehner, F., E. Hawkins, R. Sutton, A. G. Pendergrass, F. C. Moore (2023):
New potential to reduce uncertainty in regional climate projections by combining physical and socio-economic constraints
AGU Advances, DOI: 10.1029/2023AV000887 | Reviews | Code | Editor’s Highlight

[77] Lehner, F., C. Deser (2023):
Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability
Environmental Research: Climate, DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/accf30 | Code

[76] Li, X., T. Ault, C. Evans, F. Lehner, C. M. Carrillo, A. Donnelly, T. Crimmins, A. S. Gallinat, M. D. Schwartz (2023):
Growing uncertainty in projected spring onset variability in the Northern Hemisphere
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2023GL102833

[75] Bevacqua, E., L. Suarez-Gutierrez, A. Jézéquel, F. Lehner, M. Vrac, P. Yiou, J. Zscheischler (2023):
Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations
Nature Communications, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37847-5

[74] Wu, Y.-T., Y.-C. Liang, Y.-N. Kuo, F. Lehner, M. Previdi, L. M. Polvani, M.-H. Lo, C.-W. Lan (2023):
Exploiting SMILEs and the CMIP5 archive to understand Arctic climate change seasonality and uncertainty
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2022GL100745 | Supplementary Information

2022

[73] Philip, S. Y., S. F. Kew, G. J. van Oldenborgh, F. S. Anslow, S. I. Seneviratne, R. Vautard, D. Coumou, K. L. Ebi, J. Arrighi, R. Singh, M. van Aalst, C. Pereira Marghidan, M. Wehner, W. Yang, S. Li, D. L. Schumacher, M. Hauser, R. Bonnet, L. N. Luu, F. Lehner, N. Gillett, J. Tradowsky, G. A. Vecchi, C. Rodell, R. B. Stull, R. Howard, F. E. L. Otto (2022):
Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heatwave on the Pacific Coast of the US and Canada June 2021
Earth System Dynamics, DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022

[72] Carrillo, C. M., S. Coats, M. Newman, D. A. Herrera, X. Li, R. Moore, S.-I. Shin, S. Stevenson, F. Lehner, T. R. Ault (2022):
Megadrought: a series of unfortunate La Niña events?
Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, DOI: 10.1029/2021JD036376

[71] Cook, B., J. Smerdon, E. Cook, A. P. Williams, K. Anchukaitis, J. Mankin, K. Allen, L. Andreu-Hayles, T. Ault, S. Belmecheri, S. Coats, B. Coulthard, B. Fonsu, P. Grierson, D. Griffin, D. Herrera, M. Ionita, F. Lehner, C. Leland, K. Marvel, M. Morales, V. Mishra, J. Ngoma, H. Nguyen, A. O’Donnell, J. Palmer, M. Rao, M. Rodriguez-Caton, R. Seager, D. Stahle, S. Stevenson, U. Thapa, A. Varuolo-Clarke, E. Wise (2022):
Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, DOI: 10.1038/s43017-022-00329-1

[70] Wieder, W. R., D. Kennedy, F. Lehner, K. N. Musselman, K. B. Rodgers, N. Rosenbloom, I. R. Simpson, R. Yamaguchi (2022):
Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2202393119

[69] Lanson, A., P. Pfleiderer, F. Lehner, C.-F. Schleussner (2022):
Uncertainty in near-term temperature evolution must not obscure assessments of climate mitigation benefits
Nature Communications, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31425-x

[68] Bevacqua, E., G. Zappa, F. Lehner, J. Zscheischler (2022):
Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot-dry events
Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01309-5

[67] Stevenson, S., S. Coats, D. Touma, J. Cole, F. Lehner, J. Fasullo, B. Otto-Bliesner (2022):
Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2108124119

[66] Hoell, A., X.-W. Quan, M. Hoerling, R. Fu, J. Mankin, I. Simpson, R. Seager, C. He, F. Lehner, J. Lisonbee, B. Livneh, A. Sheffield (2022):
Record low 2020 North American Monsoon rains reignites American Southwestern drought
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0129.1

2021

[65] Lehner, F., S. Coats (2021):
Does regional hydroclimate change scale linearly with global warming?
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2021GL095127 | Supplementary Information

[64] Rastogi, D., F. Lehner, T. Kuruganti, K. J. Evans, K. R. Kurte, J. Sanyal (2021):
The role of humidity in determining future electricity demand in the southeastern United States
Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2fdf

[63] NOAA Drought Task Force IV* (2021):
NOAA Drought Task Force Report on the 2020–2021 Southwestern U.S. Drought
*Mankin, J. S., I. Simpson, A. Hoell, R. Fu, J. Lisonbee, A. Sheffield, and D. Barrie with key contributions from H. Annamalai, A. Kumar, R. Seager, M. Hoerling, M. Chen, C. He, P. Dirmeyer, J. E. Smerdon, F. Lehner, M. Barlow, C. B. Skinner, B. Livneh

[62] Zscheischler, J., F. Lehner (2021):
Attributing compound events to anthropogenic climate change
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0116.1

[61] Sippel, S., N. Meinshausen, E. Székely, E. M. Fischer, A. G. Pendergrass, F. Lehner, R. Knutti (2021):
Robust detection of forced warming in the presence of potentially large climate variability
Science Advances, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abh4429

[60] Röthlisberger, M., M. Hermann, C. Frei, F. Lehner, E. M. Fischer, R. Knutti, H. Wernli (2021):
A new framework for identifying and investigating seasonal climate extremes
Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0953.1

[59] Heinze-Deml, C., S. Sippel, A. G. Pendergrass, F. Lehner, N. Meinshausen (2021):
Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoders v1.0: A novel method for estimating and emulating dynamic precipitation at high resolution
Geoscientific Model Development, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-4977-2021

[58] Wood, R., F. Lehner, A. G. Pendergrass, S. Schlunegger (2021):
Changes in precipitation variability across time scales in multiple global climate model large ensembles
Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac10dd

[57] Simpson, I. R., K. A. McKinnon, F. V. Davenport, M. Tingley, F. Lehner, A. Al Fahad, D. Chen (2021):
Emergent constraints on the large scale atmospheric circulation and regional hydroclimate: do they still work in CMIP6 and how much can they actually constrain the future?
Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0055.1

[56] Krikken, F., F. Lehner, K. Haustein, I. Drobyshev, G. J. van Oldenborgh (2021):
Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2019-206

[55] Ciavarella, A., D. Cotterill, P. Stott, S. Kew, S. Philip, G. J. van Oldenborgh, A. Skålevåg, P. Lorenz, Y. Robin, F. Otto, M. Hauser, S. I. Seneviratne, F. Lehner, O. Zolina (2021):
Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence
Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w

[54] van Oldenborgh, G. J., F. Krikken, S. Lewis, N. J. Leach, F. Lehner, K. R. Saunders, M. van Weele, K. Haustein, S. Li, D. Wallom, S. Sparrow, J. Arrighi, R. P. Singh, M. van Aalst, S. Y. Philip, R. Vautard, F. E. Otto (2021):
Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, DOI: 10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021

[53] Bonan, D. B.F. Lehner, M. Holland (2021):
Partitioning uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice
Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe0ec

[52] Touma, D., S. Stevenson, F. Lehner, S. Coats (2021):
Human-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather
Nature Communications, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20570-w

2020

[51] Brunner, L., A. G. Pendergrass, F. Lehner, A. L. Merrifield, R. Lorenz, R. Knutti (2020):
Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
Earth System Dynamics, DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-995-2020

[50] Vignotto, E., S. Sippel, F.Lehner, E. M. Fischer (2020):
Towards dynamical adjustment of the full temperature distribution
Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Climate Informatics, DOI: 10.1145/3429309.3429317

[49] Papalexiou, S. M., C. R. Rajulapati, M. P. Clark, F. Lehner (2020):
Robustness of CMIP6 historical global mean temperature simulations: trends, long-term persistence, autocorrelation, and distributional shape
Earth’s Future, DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001667

[48] Tokarska, K. B., V. K. Arora, N. P. Gillett, F. Lehner, J. Rogelj, C.-F. Schleussner, R. Séférian, R. Knutti (2020):
Uncertainty in carbon budget estimates due to internal climate variability
Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abaf1b

[47] Mankin, J. S., F. Lehner, S. Coats, K. A. McKinnon (2020):
The value of initial condition large ensembles to robust adaptation decision-making
Earth’s Future, DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001610

[46] Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, I. R. Simpson, N. Rosenbloom, D. Coleman, F. Lehner, A. Pendergrass (2020):
Isolating the evolving contributions of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases: a new CESM1 Large Ensemble community resource
Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0123.1 | Supplementary Information

[45] Schlunegger, S., K. B. Rodgers, J. L. Sarmiento, T. Ilyina, J. Dunne, Y. Takano, J. Christian, M. Long, T. L. Frölicher, R. Slater, F. Lehner (2020):
Time of Emergence & Large Ensemble intercomparison for ocean biogeochemical trends
Global Biogeochemical Cycles, DOI: 10.1029/2019GB006453

[44] Lehner, F., C. Deser, N. Maher, J. Marotzke, E. Fischer, L. Brunner, R. Knutti, E. Hawkins (2020):
Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple Large Ensembles and CMIP5/6
Earth System Dynamics, DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020  | Supplementary Information | US CLIVAR research highlight article | Code and data

[43] Rastogi, D.F. Lehner, M. Ashfaq (2020):
Revisiting recent United States heatwaves in a warmer and more humid climate
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2019GL086736

[42] Lukas, J., E. Gutmann, B. Harding, F. Lehner (2020):
Climate change-informed hydrology
Chapter 11 in Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology: State of the Science, edited by J. Lukas and E. Payton, 384-449. Western Water Assessment, University of Colorado, Boulder.

[41] Deser, C., F. Lehner, K. B. Rodgers, T. Ault, T. L. Delworth, P. N. DiNezio, A. Fiore, C. Frankignoul, J. C. Fyfe, D. E. Horton, J. E. Kay, R. Knutti, N. S. Lovenduski, J. Marotzke, K. A. McKinnon, S. Minobe, J. Randerson, J. A. Screen, I. R. Simpson and M. Ting (2020):
Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects
Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2 | Code and Data

[40] Tokarska, K. B., M. B. Stolpe, S. Sippel, E. M. Fischer, C. J. Smith, F. Lehner, R. Knutti (2020):
Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models
Science Advances, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549 |  Supplementary Information

[39] Maher, N., F. Lehner, J. Marotzke (2020):
Quantifying the role of internal variability in the climate we will observe in the coming decades
Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d02

[38] Fučkar, N. S., F. E.L. Ottto, F. Lehner, I. Pinto, E. Howard, S. Sparrow, S. Li, D. Wallom (2020):
On Heavy Precipitation in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia in February 2018
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0162.1

[37] Pendergrass, A. G., G. A. Meehl, R. Pulwarty, M. Hobbins, A. Hoell, A. AghaKouchak, C. J.W. Bonfils, A. J. E. Gallant, M. Hoerling, D. Hoffmann, L. Kaatz, F. Lehner, D. Llewellyn, P. Mote, R. Neale, J. T. Overpeck, A. Sheffield, K. Stahl, M. Svoboda, M. C. Wheeler, A. W. Wood, C. A. Woodhouse (2020):
Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction
Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0

2019

[36] Lehner, F., A. W. Wood, J. A. Vano, D. M. Lawrence, M. P. Clark, J. S. Mankin (2019):
The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models 
Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0639-x |  Supplementary InformationCode

[35] Pendergrass, A. G., D. Colman, C. Deser, F. Lehner, N. Rosenbloom, and I.R. Simpson (2019):
Nonlinear response of extreme precipitation to warming in CESM1
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084826

[34] Sippel, S., N. Meinshausen, A. Merrifield, F. Lehner, A. G. Pendergrass, E. Fischer, R. Knutti (2019):
Uncovering the forced climate response from a single ensemble member using statistical learning
Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0882.1

[33] Guo, R., C. Deser, L. Terray, F. Lehner (2019):
Human influence on winter precipitation trends (1921-2015) over North America and Eurasia revealed by dynamical adjustment
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2018GL081316  |  Supplementary Information

[32] Moore, F., N. Obradovich, F. Lehner, P. Baylis (2019):
Rapidly Declining Remarkability of Temperature Anomalies May Obscure Public Perception of Climate Change
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1816541116  | Supplementary Material

2018

[31] Otto, F., P. Wolski, F. Lehner, C. Tebaldi, G. J. van Oldenborgh, S. Hogesteeger, R. Singh, P. Holden, N. Fuckar, R. Odoulami, M. New (2018):
Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015-2017
Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aae9f9

[30] Raible, C. C., M. Messmer, F. Lehner, T. F. Stocker, R. Blender (2018):
Extratropical Cyclone statistics during the last millennium
Climate of the Past, DOI: 10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018

[29] Vano, J., M. Clark, J. Arnold, B. Nijssen, A. W. Wood, E. Gutmann, N. Addor, J. Hamman, F. Lehner (2018):
Dos and Don’ts for using climate change information for water resource planning and management: guidelines for study design
Climate Services, DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2018.07.002

[28] Musselmann, K. N., F. Lehner, K. Ikeda, M. Clark, A. Prein, C. Liu, M. Barlage, R. Rasmussen (2018):
Projected increases and regime shifts in rain-on-snow flood potential over western North America
Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0236-4

[27] Lehner, F., C. Deser, I. R. Simpson, L. Terray (2018):
Attributing the US Southwest’s recent shift into drier conditions
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2018GL078312  | Supplementary Material

2017

[26] Pendergrass, A. G., R. Knutti, F. Lehner, C. Deser, B. M. Sanderson (2017):
Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate
Scientific Reports, DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y

[25] Smerdon, J. E., J. Luterbacher, S. J. Phipps, K. J. Anchukaitis, T. Ault, S. Coats, K. M. Cobb, B. I. Cook, C. Colose, T. Felis, A. Gallant, J. H. Jungclaus, B. Konecky, A. LeGrande, S. Lewis, A. S. Lopatka, W. Man, J. S. Mankin, J. T. Maxwell, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, J. W. Partin, D. Singh, N. J. Steiger, S. Stevenson, J. E. Tierney, D. Zanchettin, H. Zhang, A. R. Atwood, L. Andreu-Hayles, S. H. Baek, B. Buckley, E. R. Cook, R. D’Arrigo, S. G. Dee, M. Griffiths, C. Kulkarni, Y. Kushnir, F. Lehner, C. Leland, H. W. Linderholm, A. Okazaki, J. Palmer, E. Piovano, C. C. Raible, M. P. Rao, J. Scheff, G. A. Schmidt, R. Seager, M. Widmann, A. P. Williams, E. Xoplaki (2017):
Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
Climate of the Past, DOI: 10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017

[24] Lehner, F., A. W. Wood, D. Llewellyn, D. B. Blatchford, A. G. Goodbody, F. Pappenberger (2017):
Mitigating the impacts of climate non-stationarity on seasonal streamflow predictability in the US Southwest
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076043  | Supplementary Material | Corrigendum

[23] Merrifield, A., F. Lehner, S.-P. Xie, C. Deser (2017):
Removing circulation effects to assess central US land-atmosphere interactions in the CESM Large Ensemble
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074831

[22] Sanderson, B. M., Y. Xu, C. Tebaldi, M. Wehner, B. O’Neill, A. Jahn, A. Pendergrass, F. Lehner, W. G. Strand, L. Lin, R. Knutti, J.-F. Lamarque (2017):
Community Climate Simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degree futures
Earth System Dynamics, DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-827-2017

[21] Deser, C., R. Guo, F. Lehner (2017):
The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074273

[20] O’Neill, B., J. Done, A. Gettelman, P. Lawrence, F. Lehner, J.-F. Lamarque, L. Lin; A. Monaghan, K. Oleson, X. Ren, B. Sanderson, C. Tebaldi, M. Weitzel, Y. Xu, B. Anderson, M. Fix, S. Levis (2017):
The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): A synthesis
Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x

[19] Lehner, F., S. Coats, T. F. Stocker, B. M. Sanderson, A. G. Pendergrass, C. C. Raible, J. E. Smerdon (2017):
Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074117  | Supplementary Material

[18] Lehner, F., C. Deser, L. Terray (2017):
Towards a new estimate of “time of emergence” of anthropogenic warming: insights from dynamical adjustment and a large initial-condition model ensemble
Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0792.1  | Supplementary Material

[17] Lehner, F., E. R. Wahl, A. W. Wood, D. B. Blatchford, D. Llewellyn (2017):
Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande River runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073253  | Supplementary Material
Download new runoff ratio reconstructions (NOAA Paleoclimate Archive)

2016

[16] Camenisch, C., K. M. Keller, M. Salvisberg, B. Amann, M. Bauch, S. Blumer, R. Brazdil, S. Brönnimann, U. Büntgen, B. M. S. Campbell, L. Fernandez-Donado, R. Glaser, F. Gonzalez-Rouco, M. Grosjean, R. C. Hoffmann, H. Huhtamaa, F. Joos, A. Kiss, O. Kotyza, F. Lehner, J. Luterbacher, N. Maughan, R. Neukom, T. Novy, K. Pribyl, C. C. Raible, D. Riemann, M. Schuh, O. Wetter (2016):
The 1430s: a cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer Minimum with social and economic impacts in north-western and central Europe
Climate of the Past, DOI: 10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016

[15] Lehner, F., G. Hegerl, A. Schurer, C. Deser, T. L. Frölicher (2016):
Importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions for detection and attribution
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2016GL067935  | Supplementary Material

[14] Lehner, F., C. Deser, B. M. Sanderson (2016):
Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation
Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1616-2

[13] Chikamoto, M. O., A. Timmermann, M. Yoshimori, F. Lehner, A. Laurian, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. Mouchet, F. Joos, C. C. Raible, K. Cobb (2016):
Intensification of tropical Pacific biological productivity due to volcanic eruptions
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067359

2015

[12] Sanderson, B. M., K. W. Oleson, W. G. Strand, F. Lehner, B. C. O’Neill (2015):
A new ensemble of GCM simulations to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario
Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1567-z

[11] PAGES2K-PMIP3: O. Bothe, S. Feng, L. Fernandez Donado, E. Garcia Bustamante, J. Gergis, F. Gonzalez-Rouco, H. Goosse, G. Hegerl, A. Hind, J. Jungclaus, D. Kaufman, F. Lehner, N. McKay, A. Moberg, C. Raible, A. Schurer, J. Smerdon, L. von Gunten, S. Wagner, E. Warren, M. Widmann, P. Yiou, E. Zorita (2015):
Continental-scale temperature variability in the PMIP3 simulation ensemble and PAGES 2K regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium
Climate of the Past, DOI: 10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015

[10] Pendergrass, A., F. Lehner, B. M. Sanderson, Y. Xu (2015):
Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on emissions scenario?
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065854

[9] Lehner, F. and T. F. Stocker (2015):
From local perception to global perspective
Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2660

[8] Ortega, P., F. Lehner, D. Swingedouw, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. C. Raible, M. Casado, P. Yiou (2015):
A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium
Nature, DOI: 10.1038/nature14518

[7] Lehner, F., F. Joos, C. C. Raible, J. Mignot, A. Born, K. M. Keller, T. F. Stocker (2015):
Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE
Earth System Dynamics, DOI: 10.5194/esd-6-411-2015

[6] Keller, K., F. Joos, F. Lehner, C. C. Raible (2015):
Detecting changes in ENSO characteristics 850-2100 CE: insights from the ocean carbon cycle
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062398

[5] Zanchettin D., O. Bothe, F. Lehner, P. Ortega, C. C. Raible, and D. Swingedouw (2015):
Reconciling reconstructed and simulated features of the winter Pacific-North-American pattern in the early 19th century
Climate of the Past, DOI: 10.5194/cp-11-939-2015

2014

[4] Raible, C. C. , F. Lehner, J. F. Gonzalez-Rouco, L. Fernandez-Donado (2014):
Changing correlation structures of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation from 1000 to 2100 AD
Climate of the Past, DOI: 10.5194/cp-10-537-2014

2013

[3] Lehner, F., A. Born, C. C. Raible, T. F. Stocker (2013):
Amplified inception of European Little Ice Age by sea ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks
Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00690.1

2012

[2] Lehner, F., C. C. Raible, T. F. Stocker (2012):
Testing the robustness of a precipitation proxy-based North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction
Quaternary Science Reviews, DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.04.025

[1] Lehner, F., C. C. Raible, D. Hofer, T. F. Stocker (2012):
The freshwater balance of polar regions in transient simulations from 1500 to 2100 AD using a comprehensive coupled climate model
Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1199-6

Other publications

Lehner, F., C. Deser (submitted):
Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability
Book chapter

Frisvold, G. B., L. M. Fernandez, F. Lehner, S. A. McAfee, S. Megdal, E. Payton, J. Schmidt, J. Vano, C. Woodhouse (2022):
Featured Collection Introduction: Severe Sustained Drought Revisited: Managing the Colorado River System in Times of Water Shortage 25 Years Later — Part I
Journal of the American Water Resources Association, DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.13062

Lehner, F., A. Wood, M. Scheuerer, H. Nguyen-DeCorse (2021):
Development of short-range forecasts of weather-driven channel losses and gains to support Reclamation water management
Final Report No. ST-2018-1845-01 for the Bureau of Reclamation’s Science and Technology Program

Lehner, F., S. Amstrup (2017):
From Tropical Islands to Polar Bears: Half a Degree in Warming Makes a Difference
Op-Ed on The Revelator (27th November 2017)

Lehner, F., J. Fasullo (2017):
Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Guest post on Skeptical Science (4th October 2017)

Amstrup, S., F. Lehner (2017):
Anthropogenic Ocean Change: the consummate threat to marine mammal welfare
In: Butterworth, A. (Ed.): Marine Mammal Welfare

Lehner, F., C. Deser, L. Terray (2016):
Detection and attribution of extreme temperature using an analogue-based dynamical adjustment technique
40th NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Digest

Lehner, F. (2014):
More Mora emergence issues
Guest post on Climate Lab Book (Ed Hawkins’ blog; 4th July 2014)

Lehner, F. (2013):
Frösteln trotz Klimaerwärmung (german)
Neue Zürcher Zeitung (6th September 2013), in german

Elmore, A., F. Lehner, J. Franke (2013):
Data sharing: a key in future climate science
PAGES newsletter, 21, 92-93

Lehner F. (2013):
Estimating natural and anthropogenic responses of the water cycle in the Earth system using comprehensive coupled climate models
PhD thesis, University of Bern

Lehner, F. (2009):
1500-2100 forcing impacts on the freshwater balance in polar regions
Master thesis, University of Bern