Publications

Peer-reviewed

(Google Scholar profile,  gender stats of publications)

Submitted

Wieder, W. R., D. Kennedy, F. Lehner, K. N. Musselman, K. B. Rodgers, N. Rosenbloom, I. R. Simpson, R. Yamaguchi (submitted):
Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

Rastogi, D., F. Lehner, T. Kuruganti, K. J. Evans, K. R. Kurte, J. Sanyal (submitted):
The role of humidity in determining future electricity demand in the southeastern United States

Bevacqua, E., G. Zappa, F. Lehner, J. Zscheischler (submitted):
Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot-dry events

Lehner, F., S. Coats (submitted):
Does regional hydroclimate change scale linearly with global warming?

Gallant, A., S. Power, B. J. Henley, D. C. Verdon-Kidd, A. Pitman, D. G. C. Kirono, M. Adamu, C. Holgate, L. Ashcroft, K. Allen, P. Hope, A. S. Kiem, A. King, F. Lehner, A. G. Pendergrass, A. S. Taschetto, A. M. Ukkola, T. R. Vance, N. Wright (submitted):
Multi-year droughts through an Australian lens

Lanson, A., P. Pfleiderer, F. Lehner, C.-F. Schleussner (submitted):
Uncertainty in near-term temperature evolution must not obscure assessments of climate mitigation benefits

Fučkar, N. S., F. E. L. Otto, F. Lehner, O. P. Dube, A. Maviza, M. N. Chisola, M. Allen, M. New (submitted):
Attribution of 2019 low precipitation in a wider Angola Low region

Stevenson, S., S. Coats, D. Touma, J. Cole, F. Lehner, J. Fasullo, B. Otto-Bliesner (submitted):
21st Century megadrought: a new normal, with more frequent extremes

2021

[64] NOAA Drought Task Force IV* (2021):
NOAA Drought Task Force Report on the 2020–2021 Southwestern U.S. Drought
*Mankin, J. S., I. Simpson, A. Hoell, R. Fu, J. Lisonbee, A. Sheffield, and D. Barrie with key contributions from H. Annamalai, A. Kumar, R. Seager, M. Hoerling, M. Chen, C. He, P. Dirmeyer, J. E. Smerdon, F. Lehner, M. Barlow, C. B. Skinner, B. Livneh

[63] Zscheischler, J., F. Lehner (2021):
Attributing compound events to anthropogenic climate change
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0116.1

[62] Sippel, S., N. Meinshausen, E. Székely, E. M. Fischer, A. G. Pendergrass, F. Lehner, R. Knutti (in press):
Robust detection of forced warming in the presence of potentially large climate variability
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: XXX

[61] Hoell, A., X.-W. Quan, M. Hoerling, R. Fu, J. Mankin, I. Simpson, R. Seager, C. He, F. Lehner, J. Lisonbee, B. Livneh, A. Sheffield (in press):
Record low 2020 North American Monsoon rains reignites American Southwestern drought
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, DOI: XXX

[60] Röthlisberger, M., M. Hermann, C. Frei, F. Lehner, E. M. Fischer, R. Knutti, H. Wernli (in press):
A new framework for identifying and investigating seasonal climate extremes
Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0953.1

[59] Heinze-Deml, C., S. Sippel, A. G. Pendergrass, F. Lehner, N. Meinshausen (2021):
Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoders v1.0: A novel method for estimating and emulating dynamic precipitation at high resolution
Geoscientific Model Development, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-4977-2021

[58] Wood, R., F. Lehner, A. G. Pendergrass, S. Schlunegger (2021):
Changes in precipitation variability across time scales in multiple global climate model large ensembles
Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac10dd

[57] Simpson, I. R., K. A. McKinnon, F. V. Davenport, M. Tingley, F. Lehner, A. Al Fahad, D. Chen (2021):
Emergent constraints on the large scale atmospheric circulation and regional hydroclimate: do they still work in CMIP6 and how much can they actually constrain the future?
Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0055.1

[56] Krikken, F., F. Lehner, K. Haustein, I. Drobyshev, G. J. van Oldenborgh (2021):
Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2019-206

[55] Ciavarella, A., D. Cotterill, P. Stott, S. Kew, S. Philip, G. J. van Oldenborgh, A. Skålevåg, P. Lorenz, Y. Robin, F. Otto, M. Hauser, S. I. Seneviratne, F. Lehner, O. Zolina (2021):
Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence
Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w

[54] van Oldenborgh, G. J., F. Krikken, S. Lewis, N. J. Leach, F. Lehner, K. R. Saunders, M. van Weele, K. Haustein, S. Li, D. Wallom, S. Sparrow, J. Arrighi, R. P. Singh, M. van Aalst, S. Y. Philip, R. Vautard, F. E. Otto (2021):
Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, DOI: 10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021

[53] Bonan, D. B., F. Lehner, M. Holland (2021):
Partitioning uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice
Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe0ec

[52] Touma, D., S. Stevenson, F. Lehner, S. Coats (2021):
Human-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather
Nature Communications, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20570-w

2020

[51] Brunner, L., A. G. Pendergrass, F. Lehner, A. L. Merrifield, R. Lorenz, R. Knutti (2020):
Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
Earth System Dynamics, DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-995-2020

[50] Vignotto, E., S. Sippel, F.Lehner, E. M. Fischer (2020):
Towards dynamical adjustment of the full temperature distribution
Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Climate Informatics, DOI: 10.1145/3429309.3429317

[49] Papalexiou, S. M., C. R. Rajulapati, M. P. Clark, F. Lehner (2020):
Robustness of CMIP6 historical global mean temperature simulations: trends, long-term persistence, autocorrelation, and distributional shape
Earth’s Future, DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001667

[48] Tokarska, K. B., V. K. Arora, N. P. Gillett, F. Lehner, J. Rogelj, C.-F. Schleussner, R. Séférian, R. Knutti (2020):
Uncertainty in carbon budget estimates due to internal climate variability
Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abaf1b

[47] Mankin, J. S., F. Lehner, S. Coats, K. A. McKinnon (2020):
The value of initial condition large ensembles to robust adaptation decision-making
Earth’s Future, DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001610

[46] Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, I. R. Simpson, N. Rosenbloom, D. Coleman, F. Lehner, A. Pendergrass (2020):
Isolating the evolving contributions of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases: a new CESM1 Large Ensemble community resource | Supplementary Information
Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0123.1

[45] Schlunegger, S., K. B. Rodgers, J. L. Sarmiento, T. Ilyina, J. Dunne, Y. Takano, J. Christian, M. Long, T. L. Frölicher, R. Slater, F. Lehner (2020):
Time of Emergence & Large Ensemble intercomparison for ocean biogeochemical trends
Global Biogeochemical Cycles, DOI: 10.1029/2019GB006453

[44] Lehner, F., C. Deser, N. Maher, J. Marotzke, E. Fischer, L. Brunner, R. Knutti, E. Hawkins (2020):
Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple Large Ensembles and CMIP5/6 | Supplementary Information | US CLIVAR research highlight article | Code and data
Earth System Dynamics, DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020

[43] Rastogi, D., F. Lehner, M. Ashfaq (2020):
Revisiting recent United States heatwaves in a warmer and more humid climate
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2019GL086736

[42] Lukas, J., E. Gutmann, B. Harding, F. Lehner (2020):
Climate change-informed hydrology
Chapter 11 in Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology: State of the Science, edited by J. Lukas and E. Payton, 384-449. Western Water Assessment, University of Colorado, Boulder.

[41] Deser, C., F. Lehner, K. B. Rodgers, T. Ault, T. L. Delworth, P. N. DiNezio, A. Fiore, C. Frankignoul, J. C. Fyfe, D. E. Horton, J. E. Kay, R. Knutti, N. S. Lovenduski, J. Marotzke, K. A. McKinnon, S. Minobe, J. Randerson, J. A. Screen, I. R. Simpson and M. Ting (2020):
Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects | Code and Data
Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2

[40] Tokarska, K. B., M. B. Stolpe, S. Sippel, E. M. Fischer, C. J. Smith, F. Lehner, R. Knutti (2020):
Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models |  Supplementary Information
Science Advances, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549

[39] Maher, N., F. Lehner, J. Marotzke (2020):
Quantifying the role of internal variability in the climate we will observe in the coming decades
Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d02

[38] Fučkar, N. S., F. E.L. Ottto, F. Lehner, I. Pinto, E. Howard, S. Sparrow, S. Li, D. Wallom (2020):
On Heavy Precipitation in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia in February 2018
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0162.1

[37] Pendergrass, A. G., G. A. Meehl, R. Pulwarty, M. Hobbins, A. Hoell, A. AghaKouchak, C. J.W. Bonfils, A. J. E. Gallant, M. Hoerling, D. Hoffmann, L. Kaatz, F. Lehner, D. Llewellyn, P. Mote, R. Neale, J. T. Overpeck, A. Sheffield, K. Stahl, M. Svoboda, M. C. Wheeler, A. W. Wood, C. A. Woodhouse (2020):
Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction
Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0

2019

[36] Lehner, F., A. W. Wood, J. A. Vano, D. M. Lawrence, M. P. Clark, J. S. Mankin (2019):
The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models  |  Supplementary Information
Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0639-x

[35] Pendergrass, A. G., D. Colman, C. Deser, F. Lehner, N. Rosenbloom, and I.R. Simpson (2019):
Nonlinear response of extreme precipitation to warming in CESM1
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084826

[34] Sippel, S., N. Meinshausen, A. Merrifield, F. Lehner, A. G. Pendergrass, E. Fischer, R. Knutti (2019):
Uncovering the forced climate response from a single ensemble member using statistical learning
Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0882.1

[33] Guo, R., C. Deser, L. Terray, F. Lehner (2019):
Human influence on winter precipitation trends (1921-2015) over North America and Eurasia revealed by dynamical adjustment  |  Supplementary Information
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2018GL081316

[32] Moore, F., N. Obradovich, F. Lehner, P. Baylis (2019):
Rapidly Declining Remarkability of Temperature Anomalies May Obscure Public Perception of Climate Change | Supplementary Material
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1816541116

2018

[31] Otto, F., P. Wolski, F. Lehner, C. Tebaldi, G. J. van Oldenborgh, S. Hogesteeger, R. Singh, P. Holden, N. Fuckar, R. Odoulami, M. New (2018):
Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015-2017
Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aae9f9

[30] Raible, C. C., M. Messmer, F. Lehner, T. F. Stocker, R. Blender (2018):
Extratropical Cyclone statistics during the last millennium
Climate of the Past, DOI: 10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018

[29] Vano, J., M. Clark, J. Arnold, B. Nijssen, A. W. Wood, E. Gutmann, N. Addor, J. Hamman, F. Lehner (2018):
Dos and Don’ts for using climate change information for water resource planning and management: guidelines for study design
Climate Services, DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2018.07.002

[28] Musselmann, K. N., F. Lehner, K. Ikeda, M. Clark, A. Prein, C. Liu, M. Barlage, R. Rasmussen (2018):
Projected increases and regime shifts in rain-on-snow flood potential over western North America
Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0236-4

[27] Lehner, F., C. Deser, I. R. Simpson, L. Terray (2018):
Attributing the US Southwest’s recent shift into drier conditions | Supplementary Material
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/ 2018GL078312

2017

[26] Pendergrass, A. G., R. Knutti, F. Lehner, C. Deser, B. M. Sanderson (2017):
Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate
Scientific Reports, DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y

[25] Smerdon, J. E., J. Luterbacher, S. J. Phipps, K. J. Anchukaitis, T. Ault, S. Coats, K. M. Cobb, B. I. Cook, C. Colose, T. Felis, A. Gallant, J. H. Jungclaus, B. Konecky, A. LeGrande, S. Lewis, A. S. Lopatka, W. Man, J. S. Mankin, J. T. Maxwell, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, J. W. Partin, D. Singh, N. J. Steiger, S. Stevenson, J. E. Tierney, D. Zanchettin, H. Zhang, A. R. Atwood, L. Andreu-Hayles, S. H. Baek, B. Buckley, E. R. Cook, R. D’Arrigo, S. G. Dee, M. Griffiths, C. Kulkarni, Y. Kushnir, F. Lehner, C. Leland, H. W. Linderholm, A. Okazaki, J. Palmer, E. Piovano, C. C. Raible, M. P. Rao, J. Scheff, G. A. Schmidt, R. Seager, M. Widmann, A. P. Williams, E. Xoplaki (2017):
Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
Climate of the Past, DOI: 10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017

[24] Lehner, F., A. W. Wood, D. Llewellyn, D. B. Blatchford, A. G. Goodbody, F. Pappenberger (2017):
Mitigating the impacts of climate non-stationarity on seasonal streamflow predictability in the US Southwest | Supplementary Material | Corrigendum
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076043

[23] Merrifield, A., F. Lehner, S.-P. Xie, C. Deser (2017):
Removing circulation effects to assess central US land-atmosphere interactions in the CESM Large Ensemble
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074831

[22] Sanderson, B. M., Y. Xu, C. Tebaldi, M. Wehner, B. O’Neill, A. Jahn, A. Pendergrass, F. Lehner, W. G. Strand, L. Lin, R. Knutti, J.-F. Lamarque (2017):
Community Climate Simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degree futures
Earth System Dynamics, DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-827-2017

[21] Deser, C., R. Guo, F. Lehner (2017):
The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074273

[20] O’Neill, B., J. Done, A. Gettelman, P. Lawrence, F. Lehner, J.-F. Lamarque, L. Lin; A. Monaghan, K. Oleson, X. Ren, B. Sanderson, C. Tebaldi, M. Weitzel, Y. Xu, B. Anderson, M. Fix, S. Levis (2017):
The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): A synthesis
Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x

[19] Lehner, F., S. Coats, T. F. Stocker, B. M. Sanderson, A. G. Pendergrass, C. C. Raible, J. E. Smerdon (2017):
Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates | Supplementary Material
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074117

[18] Lehner, F., C. Deser, L. Terray (2017):
Towards a new estimate of “time of emergence” of anthropogenic warming: insights from dynamical adjustment and a large initial-condition model ensemble | Supplementary Material
Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0792.1

[17] Lehner, F., E. R. Wahl, A. W. Wood, D. B. Blatchford, D. Llewellyn (2017):
Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande River runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective | Supplementary Material
Download new runoff ratio reconstructions (NOAA Paleoclimate Archive)
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073253

2016

[16] Camenisch, C., K. M. Keller, M. Salvisberg, B. Amann, M. Bauch, S. Blumer, R. Brazdil, S. Brönnimann, U. Büntgen, B. M. S. Campbell, L. Fernandez-Donado, R. Glaser, F. Gonzalez-Rouco, M. Grosjean, R. C. Hoffmann, H. Huhtamaa, F. Joos, A. Kiss, O. Kotyza, F. Lehner, J. Luterbacher, N. Maughan, R. Neukom, T. Novy, K. Pribyl, C. C. Raible, D. Riemann, M. Schuh, O. Wetter (2016):
The 1430s: a cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer Minimum with social and economic impacts in north-western and central Europe
Climate of the Past, DOI: 10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016

[15] Lehner, F., G. Hegerl, A. Schurer, C. Deser, T. L. Frölicher (2016):
Importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions for detection and attribution | Supplementary Material
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2016GL067935

[14] Lehner, F., C. Deser, B. M. Sanderson (2016):
Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation
Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1616-2

[13] Chikamoto, M. O., A. Timmermann, M. Yoshimori, F. Lehner, A. Laurian, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. Mouchet, F. Joos, C. C. Raible, K. Cobb (2016):
Intensification of tropical Pacific biological productivity due to volcanic eruptions
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067359

2015

[12] Sanderson, B. M., K. W. Oleson, W. G. Strand, F. Lehner, B. C. O’Neill (2015):
A new ensemble of GCM simulations to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario
Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1567-z

[11] PAGES2K-PMIP3: O. Bothe, S. Feng, L. Fernandez Donado, E. Garcia Bustamante, J. Gergis, F. Gonzalez-Rouco, H. Goosse, G. Hegerl, A. Hind, J. Jungclaus, D. Kaufman, F. Lehner, N. McKay, A. Moberg, C. Raible, A. Schurer, J. Smerdon, L. von Gunten, S. Wagner, E. Warren, M. Widmann, P. Yiou, E. Zorita (2015):
Continental-scale temperature variability in the PMIP3 simulation ensemble and PAGES 2K regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium
Climate of the Past, DOI: 10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015

[10] Pendergrass, A., F. Lehner, B. M. Sanderson, Y. Xu (2015):
Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on emissions scenario?
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065854

[9] Lehner, F. and T. F. Stocker (2015):
From local perception to global perspective
Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2660

[8] Ortega, P., F. Lehner, D. Swingedouw, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. C. Raible, M. Casado, P. Yiou (2015):
A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium
Nature, DOI: 10.1038/nature14518

[7] Lehner, F., F. Joos, C. C. Raible, J. Mignot, A. Born, K. M. Keller, T. F. Stocker (2015):
Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE
Earth System Dynamics, DOI: 10.5194/esd-6-411-2015

[6] Keller, K., F. Joos, F. Lehner, C. C. Raible (2015):
Detecting changes in ENSO characteristics 850-2100 CE: insights from the ocean carbon cycle
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062398

[5] Zanchettin D., O. Bothe, F. Lehner, P. Ortega, C. C. Raible, and D. Swingedouw (2015):
Reconciling reconstructed and simulated features of the winter Pacific-North-American pattern in the early 19th century
Climate of the Past, DOI: 10.5194/cp-11-939-2015

2014

[4] Raible, C. C. , F. Lehner, J. F. Gonzalez-Rouco, L. Fernandez-Donado (2014):
Changing correlation structures of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation from 1000 to 2100 AD
Climate of the Past, DOI: 10.5194/cp-10-537-2014

2013

[3] Lehner, F., A. Born, C. C. Raible, T. F. Stocker (2013):
Amplified inception of European Little Ice Age by sea ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks
Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00690.1

2012

[2] Lehner, F., C. C. Raible, T. F. Stocker (2012):
Testing the robustness of a precipitation proxy-based North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction
Quaternary Science Reviews, DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.04.025

[1] Lehner, F., C. C. Raible, D. Hofer, T. F. Stocker (2012):
The freshwater balance of polar regions in transient simulations from 1500 to 2100 AD using a comprehensive coupled climate model
Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1199-6

Other publications

Lehner, F., C. Deser (in prep.):
Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability
Book chapter

Lehner, F., S. Amstrup (2017):
From Tropical Islands to Polar Bears: Half a Degree in Warming Makes a Difference
Op-Ed on The Revelator (27th November 2017)

Lehner, F., J. Fasullo (2017):
Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Guest post on Skeptical Science (4th October 2017)

Amstrup, S., F. Lehner (2017):
Anthropogenic Ocean Change: the consummate threat to marine mammal welfare
In: Butterworth, A. (Ed.): Marine Mammal Welfare

Lehner, F., C. Deser, L. Terray (2016):
Detection and attribution of extreme temperature using an analogue-based dynamical adjustment technique
40th NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Digest

Lehner, F. (2014):
More Mora emergence issues
Guest post on Climate Lab Book (Ed Hawkins’ blog; 4th July 2014)

Lehner, F. (2013):
Frösteln trotz Klimaerwärmung (german)
Neue Zürcher Zeitung (6th September 2013), in german

Elmore, A., F. Lehner, J. Franke (2013):
Data sharing: a key in future climate science
PAGES newsletter, 21, 92-93

Lehner F. (2013):
Estimating natural and anthropogenic responses of the water cycle in the Earth system using comprehensive coupled climate models
PhD thesis, University of Bern

Lehner, F. (2009):
1500-2100 forcing impacts on the freshwater balance in polar regions
Master thesis, University of Bern